This report from from TD bank is too fantastic and has to be shared. Below are some excerpts:
“Jobs are sorely lagging behind this rebound. The unemployment rate is understood to be a lagging indicator, but employment itself has tended to be more coincident. By historical standards, employment is nearly half a year behind ‘schedule’.”
“[Recovery] must eventually translate into a generalized household willingness and ability to use their plastic at the counter, and not indefinitely forestall paying it back.”
“Uncertainty about future income forced households to delay large purchases, while a tightening of standards (e.g. lower credit limits for credit cards) has translated to lower supply of revolving credit. The demand side has naturally lagged and seems well aligned with still weak employment prospects.”
To simplify – everyone is broke and everyone knows the party is over. No-one is interested in racking up credit card debt or “tapping their home equity” to buy cheap crap from china anymore.